Alabama is booming, but not everywhere. While the state as a whole is growing, a closer look reveals a patchwork of thriving and struggling communities. This raises a crucial question: what’s driving these disparities, and what does it mean for Alabama’s future?
New data from the U.S. Census Bureau, released earlier this year, paints a detailed picture of population shifts across the state, right down to the neighborhood level. And this is the part most people miss: it’s not just about big cities versus rural areas. Even within Alabama’s largest metro areas, there are pockets of growth and decline.
Take a look at the map below to see the story unfold:
[Can’t see the map? Click here. (https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/27764044/) ]
As expected, areas like Huntsville and the coast are experiencing significant growth. But here’s where it gets interesting: major college towns and Birmingham’s suburbs are also seeing population booms. Conversely, central Birmingham, Mobile, and much of rural Alabama are facing population losses.
To uncover these trends, AL.com analyzed population changes at the census tract level—some of the smallest geographic units available—between 2020 and 2024. This granular approach reveals which of Alabama’s 67 counties are thriving and which are struggling, often with surprising results.
So, where’s the growth happening fastest?
The title of fastest-growing census tract goes to 303.51 in Shelby County, located in the southern part of Pelham and home to Blueberry Estates. This area saw a staggering 133% growth, one of only two tracts in the state to more than double in size during this period. The other? Tract 9800 in Mobile County, which houses the University of South Alabama. This highlights the role of education and economic hubs in driving population growth.
Other top-growing tracts are scattered across Tuscaloosa, Limestone, Baldwin, Jefferson, Madison, and Montgomery counties. [Can’t see the list? Click here. (https://www.datawrapper.de/_/9mcWz/) ]
But what about the areas shrinking the fastest?
Alabama’s most rapidly declining tract is 106.05 in Jefferson County, part of Fairfield. This area lost a staggering 57% of its population, the only tract in the state to see such a dramatic drop. Jefferson, Mobile, and Dallas counties each appear twice on the list of the 10 fastest-shrinking tracts, alongside Choctaw, Monroe, Franklin, and Butler counties. [Can’t see the list? Click here. (https://www.datawrapper.de/_/QAIGt/) ]
Overall, about 42% of Alabama’s census tracts lost population during this period. However, some counties—particularly rural ones, including many in the Black Belt region—experienced much higher rates of decline. For instance, Conecuh, Washington, and Wilcox counties saw 80% of their tracts shrink, while Mobile and Montgomery counties lost population in 55% and 53% of their tracts, respectively.
Even Jefferson County, the state’s most populous and home to Birmingham, saw 47% of its tracts lose residents. In contrast, Madison County (home to Huntsville) and Baldwin County experienced much lower rates of decline, with only 23% and 16% of their tracts shrinking, respectively. The outlier? Tiny Clay County, with just four census tracts, saw 100% growth across the board.
But here’s the controversial part: What’s causing these disparities? Is it economic opportunity, access to education, or something else entirely? And what does this mean for the future of Alabama’s rural communities versus its urban centers? Let us know your thoughts in the comments—this is a conversation that needs to happen.
