S&P upgrades Ghana's credit rating to 'B-/B' on stronger fiscal and external position, signaling a renewed vote of confidence from global capital markets in Ghana's macroeconomic recovery path. The upgrade reflects a combination of strengthening fiscal and external metrics, with rising gold and cocoa export volumes boosting the cedi's stability and increasing foreign reserves to nearly $11 billion. However, despite the positive signals, S&P maintains a cautious tone with the stable outlook, citing several persistent vulnerabilities, including high debt-service costs, reform implementation challenges, and exposure to commodity price shocks. The upgrade follows Ghana's successful restructuring of $13.1 billion in Eurobonds and continued progress in addressing its remaining debt obligations. This means improved sovereign ratings may lower borrowing costs for the government and pave the way for better access to international capital markets. Additionally, a more stable macro-environment (lower inflation, a stronger currency, rising reserves) improves predictability for business planning and investment. S&P projects that inflation will remain below 10% in 2026 as monetary policy and the exchange rate have stabilized. The government's new fiscal rules, including a mandated 1.5% primary surplus and a debt ceiling targeting 45% of GDP by 2034, are expected to safeguard against fiscal slippages and ensure a proactive framework for correcting future fiscal deviations.
